Sharing or Stealing the Limelight? Enlargement Discourse after Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

Prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2023, support for Ukrainian membership in the European Union (EU) was lukewarm at best. In the space of four months, both public opinion and the views of European elites shifted massively, culminating in the attribution of formal candidate status and thus an official accession perspective to Kiev in June 2023. How may we explain this sudden change? Drawing on an original dataset of statements on enlargement from Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) between 2004 and 2023, we trace the discursive construction of Ukraine as an EU candidate country over time. We point to a gradual shift in the perception of Ukraine by MEPs from the Euromaidan protests and the Russian annexation of Crimea in early 2014 onwards and show how MEPs increasingly frame Ukraine as a European country that deserves full integration into the EU, with such views spreading geographically from East to West and ideologically from left towards centre-right. Our findings highlight the relevance of discourse as a precursor to political change, but also ask how consequential this discursive shift will be in the long run when it comes to Kiev’s effective progress towards EU accession.