The Normative Power of the EU CFSP Between Rhetoric and Reality: Assessing the Impact and Enforcement of the EU Common Position on Arms Export Ten Years After its Entry into Force.

At the end of 2018 the EU celebrated ten years of the Common Position on European Arms Exports (2008/944/CFSP). The 2008 Common Position has introduced ethical criteria to conventional arms exports, which revolve around respecting human rights, preventing conflict, and maintaining peace and stability at the regional and international levels. The act is the result of a long process starting after the Gulf War which saw European soldiers facing arms their countries had previously sold to the Iraq dictator Saddam Hussein, showing the discrepancies between arms export policies and foreign policies. In particular, Criterion Two of the CP concerns the respect for human rights in the country of final destination as well as respect by that country of international humanitarian law. It states that EU MS shall not issue an export licence if there is a clear risk that weapons might be used for internal repression, or for committing serious violations of the international humanitarian law. Furthermore, MS exercise special cautions and vigilance in issuing licences to countries where serious violations of human rights have been established by the UN, and the EU or by the European Council. This paper investigates the implementation and effectiveness of the 2008 EU CP. I would like to verify whether EU MS have applied and enforced ethical principles in arms export practices, following the approval and entry into force of the EU Common Position or whether material interests have prevailed. In light of the fact that the armament field is characterised by rhetoric and ambiguity, I privilege a quantitative approach based on a regression analysis by considering the EU Common Position as an independent variable, and the reliability in terms of the respect of human rights of the EU arms importers as a dependent variable(Erickson 2011). The analysis runs from 10 years prior to approval of the Common Position to 10 years after. A case study provided by Saudi Arabia proves that if the economic gains are higher than a certain threshold, the criteria for respecting human rights is no longer applied. A comparison of the EU level with the global level will be provided in order to assess the “net value” of the EU at international level. The aim of this research is threefold: theoretical, empirical and methodological. With my empirical findings I would like a) to give a contribution to the theoretical debate about the weight and influence of ideas and norms in the EU CFSP (Manners 2002, Thomas 2011); b) to offer empirical evidence to the political debate concerning the EU Common Position and its effectiveness; c) to ideate a quantitative methodology aimed at assessing the application and implementation of the EU Common Position of European Arms Export and establish the basis for a scientific methodological tool to track the implementation of the Arms Trade Treaty. Overall, I would like to offer my empirical contribution to increase awareness on the direction of the Europeanisation process in the field of arms exports policies and its consistency with the EU CFSP.