It’s Not What We Say, It’s What We Do: Exploring the Link between Policy Agenda Dynamics and Legislative Outputs in the European Union

Although policy agenda dynamics in the European Union (EU) are gradually gaining scholarly attention, a gap exists in the literature between the current focus on issue attention (a policy input) and the impact this has on legislation (a policy output). This study examines the degree to which the legislative outputs of the EU are driven by the stated policy priorities of EU leaders, and the institutional environment in which they make decisions. To capture patterns in the evolution of legislative outputs, we apply a dynamic topic model to all legislation agreed upon and put into law between 1997 and the present. We show that in certain policy areas, the legislative priorities of the Union have remained stable, while in others, significant changes have occurred over time. We explain the observed patterns in legislative output dynamics using a punctuated equilibrium framework, with an emphasis on leadership turnover and institutional change as drivers of legislative output dynamics. In doing so, we provide new insight into the way in which actors and institutions impact on policy outcomes in a dynamic policy-making environment.